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Gamblers Got It Wrong
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It is often said that the pointspread is a reflection of public opinion. Perception is reality. This is true to some extent. I would take the position that the opening line has an influence on the closing line. That is, if the Lakers were made a big favorite, they might close at a lower number, but still higher than if they had opened as a small favorite. Huh?

Thoughout the NBA finals, we saw a decided bias toward the Lakers in the betting lines. Boston was consistently made a small favorite at home (4 or less). In Los Angeles, the Lakers were made larger favorites (7-9½ points). This did not change much thoughout the series, despite the obvious superior play of the Celtics. So, wise bettors simply loaded up on Boston and sat back enjoying the miscalculation.

The opening lines were consistently reflective of someone somewhere leaning to the Lakers. The play on the courts made it quite clear that Boston was playing superior basketball on both coasts. The message is clear. Opening lines are not an accurate indicator of anything. Many think there is something magic in those numbers. Not so. In many cases, they are simply calculated and there is damned little thinking involved. This championship series proved that.

This Page was Computer Generated, using custom software designed by G. Hawley.
Updated Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Contents © 2008 Gary Hawley · Denver, CO

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